• Wmm@touzhizhe
• 19 Aug 2025

China held a national urban work meeting

China held a national urban work meeting on July 15, 2025.

The meeting pointed out that since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Party Central Committee has deeply grasped the laws of urban development in the new situation, adhered to the Party’s overall leadership over urban work, and adhered to the principle that the people build the city and the city serves the people. It has also adhered to the systematic planning of cities as organic life systems, promoting historic achievements in urban development. The level of new urbanization in China, the urban development capacity, the level of urban planning, construction and governance, the level of suitability for business and living, the level of protection and inheritance of historical and cultural heritage, and the quality of the ecological environment have all significantly improved.
The meeting pointed out that China’s urbanization is transitioning from a period of rapid growth to a stable development phase, and urban development is shifting from a stage of large-scale expansion to one focused on improving the quality and efficiency of existing resources. Urban work should deeply understand and proactively adapt to these changes, transform urban development concepts to be more people-oriented, change urban development methods to be more intensive and efficient, shift urban development drivers to emphasize distinctive development, adjust the focus of urban work to prioritize governance and investment, and modify urban work approaches to enhance coordination and integration.

The meeting outlined seven key tasks for urban work. First, efforts should be made to optimize the modern urban system, aiming to enhance cities’ comprehensive capacity to accommodate population and economic and social development. This includes developing modern urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas in a clustered and networked manner, promoting county-level urbanization in a classified manner, continuing to facilitate the urbanization of rural migrant populations, and promoting coordinated development among large, medium, and small cities and towns, as well as urban-rural integration. Second, efforts should be made to build vibrant and innovative cities by fostering an innovative ecosystem and making continuous breakthroughs in developing new productive forces, relying on reform and opening up to enhance urban vitality, and conducting high-quality urban renewal to fully leverage cities’ pivotal role in both domestic and international circulation. Third, efforts should be made to build comfortable and convenient livable cities by integrating population, industry, urban, and transportation planning to optimize urban spatial structure, accelerating the establishment of a new real estate development model, steadily advancing the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses, and vigorously developing the service industry to improve public service levels and firmly safeguarding people’s livelihoods. Fourth, efforts should be made to build green and low-carbon beautiful cities by consolidating the achievements of ecological and environmental governance, taking more effective measures to address issues such as urban air pollution, protection of drinking water sources, and the management of new pollutants, promoting the coordinated benefits of pollution reduction, carbon reduction, and green expansion, and enhancing urban biodiversity. Fifth, efforts should be made to build safe and resilient cities by advancing the construction of urban infrastructure lifeline safety projects, accelerating the renovation and upgrading of old pipelines, strictly limiting the construction of super high-rise buildings, comprehensively enhancing the safety of buildings, strengthening the prevention and control of urban natural disasters, and coordinating urban flood control systems and urban waterlogging management, as well as strengthening comprehensive social security and effectively maintaining urban public safety. Sixth, efforts should be made to build morally upright and civilized cities by improving the system for the protection and inheritance of historical and cultural heritage, perfecting urban appearance management systems, protecting unique historical and cultural heritages, human geography, and natural landscapes, and strengthening the construction of urban cultural soft power to enhance citizens’ moral standards. Seventh, efforts should be made to build smart and efficient cities by adhering to the leadership of the Party, upholding the rule of law in urban governance, innovating urban governance concepts, models, and methods, and effectively using mechanisms such as citizen service hotlines to efficiently address the urgent and difficult issues of the people.

The meeting emphasized that to build modern people-oriented cities, it is essential to strengthen the Party’s comprehensive leadership over urban work. It is necessary to further improve the leadership system and working mechanisms, enhance the policy coordination of urban development, and strengthen the execution capabilities of all parties. It is important to establish and practice a correct view of political achievements, establish a scientific evaluation system for urban development, strengthen the quality and capacity building of urban work teams, and motivate Party members and cadres to be proactive and take on responsibilities. It is also necessary to adhere to the principle of seeking truth from facts and oppose formalism and bureaucratism. To accurately grasp the historical position of China’s urban development, we should carry out urban work with a broader perspective; to deeply understand the goal orientation of building modern people-oriented cities, and consciously practice the development philosophy of putting people at the center; to profoundly comprehend the strategic orientation of urban development through intensification, and more effectively enhance the quality of urban development; to thoroughly recognize the inherent requirements of enhancing the driving force and vitality of urban development, and do a good job in the major article of reform and innovation; to deeply understand the systematic and complex nature of urban work, and strive to improve the ability to implement various tasks and deployments.

• Wmm@touzhizhe
• 15 Apr 2025

Premier said China’s real estate market still has considerable room for development

On April 15, 2025, Premier Li Qiang listened to reports in Beijing on the revitalization and reuse of existing housing and the conversion of commercial housing into talent apartments.

Premier Li Qiang pointed out that purchasing existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing is an important measure to stabilize the real estate market and improve people’s livelihood. Relevant policies should be implemented well, granting cities greater autonomy in terms of the purchasing entity, price, and usage, and new supportive measures should be promptly studied and introduced.

He said that China should further promote urban renewal, intensify the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses, and revitalize existing housing and optimize new supply through various means. China should focus on the concerns of new urban residents and those with housing difficulties, adjust and improve relevant policies, and support the housing needs of residents for both first-time and improvement purposes.

The Premier emphasized that in the current and future periods, China’s real estate market still has considerable room for development. China will further unleash market potential, focus on building “good houses”, accelerate the establishment of a new model for real estate development, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

• Wmm@touzhizhe
• 14 Apr 2025

The bullish trap in the US stock market

Institutions are worried about being unable to sell their stocks!

The bullish trap in the US stock market is obvious. Against the backdrop of the intensification of the Sino-US trade war in April 2025, the sharp fluctuations in the US stock market have sparked widespread discussions about the “bullish trap”.

Based on the current market dynamics and public information, the recent rebound in the US stock market shows obvious short-term bullish trap characteristics, and other markets can also refer to this.

On April 9, the US government announced a 90-day suspension of additional tariffs on 75 countries, triggering an epic rebound in the S&P 500 index with a single-day surge of 9.5% and the Nasdaq index soaring by 12.16%. However, China was excluded from the exemption list, and tariffs on some goods were even raised to 125%, indicating that the policy has not fundamentally eased.

This “policy pulse” has led to an overreaction of the market to short-term news, but lacks sustainable fundamental support. For instance, the rebound in technology stocks (such as Apple’s 15% increase) relies on expectations of tariff exemptions, but new tariffs on industries like semiconductors may be implemented in 1-2 months, and the short-term benefits may quickly reverse.

Currently, both the US and Hong Kong stock markets are experiencing a divergence where retail investors are buying while institutional investors are reducing their holdings. Retail investors have been net buyers in large volumes, but institutional investors have been selling off their positions significantly during the same period. This divergence indicates that retail investor sentiment is driving a short-term rebound, while institutions are taking the opportunity to exit.

For instance, despite JPMorgan Chase’s CEO warning of an 80% risk of economic recession, retail investors are still flocking to high-risk tech stocks like Tesla, creating a “herd mentality”. In addition, one should also be cautious of the false prosperity driven by short covering. On April 9th, the US stock market soared, causing short sellers to lose 75 billion US dollars in a single day. However, short positions have not been fully closed, and the market still faces subsequent selling pressure.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that hedge funds have reduced their long positions and increased hedging, indicating that institutions lack confidence in the sustainability of the rebound. The S&P 500 rebounded from its low point, with a huge long bullish candle followed by subsequent volume contraction, suggesting insufficient capital follow-up. Tesla’s target price was lowered to $190 by UBS due to the risk of China’s countermeasures, but retail investors still chased its 22% single-day increase, resulting in a disconnect between sentiment and fundamentals.

Gold is in high demand as Goldman Sachs raised its target price to $3,700 per ounce, but if the Federal Reserve delays cutting interest rates, the rise in real interest rates may suppress the gold price. The rise in defensive sectors such as utilities reflects the demand for safe-haven assets, which is in contradiction to the rebound in technology stocks, indicating a confused market direction.

Currently, the US stock market is showing a bullish chain of “policy stimulus → short covering → retail investors chasing gains → institutional investors pulling out”. The short-term rebound is unlikely to reverse the long-term risks. Investors should be wary of the bullish risks under the policy-driven market. Especially when the market has not yet moved beyond the “news-driven” stage, blindly chasing gains may lead to a repeat of the sharp drop after the “seven-minute surge” on April 9.

When the market enters a bear market, institutions holding a large amount of stocks will be worried about being unable to sell their stocks. If they sell a large amount in the short term, it will lead to a price crash and cause further losses. Therefore, they will definitely use the information to carry out short-term price hikes to lure retail investors to enter the market and take over their stocks. However, retail investors, believing in the saying “fortune lies in taking risks”, or fearing that they have missed the opportunity to buy at the bottom, blindly enter the market and may gain a little at first. But they will be repeatedly trapped by the bear market until they are forced to cut their losses and exit.

• Wmm@touzhizhe
• 06 Apr 2025

China’s potential response to Trump Tariff

The US government has gone against the global trend by imposing so-called “reciprocal tariffs” on almost all its trading partners, including China. China may take resolute and forceful countermeasures, which has drawn worldwide attention. At present, it is necessary to objectively analyze the impact of the US’ excessive tariffs on China, rationally view the good momentum of China’s economic development, and firmly maintain confidence in dealing with this round of US suppression.
(1) The excessive imposition of tariffs by the US will have an impact on China, but “the sky won’t fall”. This time, the US government’s imposition of a 34% tariff on China, combined with the previous tariffs, will severely curb bilateral trade. In the short term, it is inevitable that it will have a negative impact on China’s exports and increase the downward pressure on the economy.
However, it should be noted that China is a super-large economy. In the face of the tariff bullying from the United States, China has a strong ability to withstand pressure. In recent years, China has been actively building a diversified market, and its reliance on the US market has been declining. The share of China’s exports to the US in its total exports has dropped from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024. A decline in exports to the US will not have a disruptive impact on China’s overall economy. Many products in the US are highly dependent on China. Currently, the US not only cannot do without China for many consumer goods, but also needs to import many investment goods and intermediate products from China. The dependence on several categories exceeds 50%, and it is difficult to find alternative sources in the international market in the short term. Against the backdrop of the deep integration of global production and supply chains, it is impossible for Sino-US trade to be completely interrupted. The potential for economic and trade cooperation in emerging markets is huge and is increasingly becoming an important foundation for China to stabilize its foreign trade. China is the main trading partner of more than 150 countries and regions around the world. Since 2018, China’s exports to ASEAN have increased from 12.8% to 16.4%, and its exports to the countries along the Belt and Road Initiative have increased from 38.7% to 47.8%, maintaining a relatively fast growth momentum. The domestic market has a broad buffer space and serves as an important rear base. According to statistics, among the hundreds of thousands of Chinese enterprises with export performance in 2024, nearly 85% also conduct domestic sales, and the amount of domestic sales accounts for nearly 75% of the total sales. China is accelerating the removal of policy obstacles and bottlenecks for “export to domestic sales” and expanding domestic demand policies are also being intensified and expanded. The accommodating effect of the domestic market will increasingly be manifested.
(2) China’s economy is currently stabilizing and improving, and it has the confidence and strength to deal with the tariff shock from the US. Since the US initiated the trade war against China in 2017, no matter how hard the US has hit and pressured China, China has maintained its development and progress, demonstrating a resilience of “the harder it is pressed, the stronger it becomes”, which is China’s greatest confidence in dealing with external shocks. The economic cycle is constantly improving. In recent years, China has continuously optimized supply and demand, smoothed domestic economic circulation, and significantly enhanced its internal growth momentum. Especially after the Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26, 2022, with the implementation of a series of incremental policies, the domestic economy has continued to recover and improve. In the first two months of this year, domestic demand such as investment and consumption grew better than expected, exports initially withstood the test, and the PMIs of manufacturing and services continued to rise. It is expected that the growth rate in the first quarter will exceed 5%. The empowerment of science and technology is continuously strengthening. China has seized the development of new productive forces as the most important supply, insisting on driving industrial innovation through scientific and technological innovation, achieving multiple breakthroughs in fields such as integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, and humanoid robots, demonstrating the huge vitality of China’s scientific and technological innovation. “Strangling” and suppression will only force China to accelerate the breakthrough of core technologies in key areas. The effect of risk mitigation is obvious. In recent years, China has withstood internal and external pressures, persisted in doing difficult but correct things, and continuously defused risks in key areas such as real estate, local government debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions. Currently, positive changes have occurred in the real estate market transactions and social confidence, with a more obvious recovery trend in first-tier cities. Expectations from all sides are constantly improving. China’s long-term stable social environment, continuously optimized business environment, and the policy continuity of adhering to goals without relaxation and implementing plans consistently provide enterprises with long-term stable expectations. Since the beginning of this year, the views on China’s economic prospects at home and abroad have significantly improved. International organizations such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and many Wall Street financial institutions have raised their predictions for China’s economic growth, are optimistic about China’s capital market, and regard China’s “certainty” as a safe haven to hedge against the “uncertainty” of the US.
(3) In the face of the US’ wanton imposition of tariffs, China is well-prepared and has effective countermeasures. China has been engaged in a trade war with the US for eight years and has accumulated rich experience in the struggle. Although the international market generally believes that the US’ wanton imposition of tariffs is beyond expectations, China has made predictions about the US’ implementation of a new round of economic and trade suppression and has fully estimated the possible impact. The advance and surplus of the response plan have also been well prepared. Last year’s China Economic Work Conference made comprehensive arrangements on how to deal with the US’ new round of containment and suppression against China, emphasizing the need to enrich and improve the policy toolkit, dynamically adjust policies based on the degree of external influence, strengthen unconventional counter-cyclical regulation, and enhance the foresight, pertinence and effectiveness of macro-control. At this year’s Two Sessions in China, many policies introduced, such as setting the fiscal deficit rate for this year at around 4% and using treasury funds to expand support for key areas, are concrete manifestations of unconventional policies.
In the future, based on the evolving situation, there is ample room for adjustment in monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, which can be introduced at any time. Fiscal policy has been clearly stated to increase spending intensity and accelerate spending progress. There is still room for further expansion of fiscal deficits, special bonds, and special treasury bonds as circumstances warrant. China may take extraordinary measures to boost domestic consumption, accelerate the implementation of established policies, and introduce a batch of reserve policies in a timely manner. China may also take concrete and effective measures to firmly stabilize the capital market and restore market confidence. Relevant contingency plans and policies will be rolled out successively. Chinese governments at all levels will provide precise assistance to industries and enterprises that have been severely impacted on a case-by-case basis, support enterprises in adjusting their business strategies, and guide and help them maintain trade with the United States as much as possible while exploring domestic and non-US markets. At the same time, China will urge the US to correct its wrongdoings and engage in consultations with China and other countries in an equal, respectful, and mutually beneficial manner to properly resolve trade disputes.
(4) It is widely believed that China will remain committed to doing their own things well and respond to the changes in the external environment by adjusting the domestic economic structure. The world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, and the US tariff policy has further increased the uncertainty in the global political and economic landscape. As a responsible global power, China should turn pressure into motivation and view the US’ challenges as a strategic opportunity to accelerate the formation of a new development pattern, promote high-quality development and economic restructuring. China will inject more stability into the global economy through their own stable development. In the face of the high tariffs that have continuously compressed the trade space with the US, China should take expanding domestic demand as a long-term strategy, strive to make consumption the main driver and stabilizer of economic growth, and leverage the advantage of its huge market. On the one hand, China may start from the demand side and steadily increase residents’ income and reduce their burden to enhance their consumption capacity and willingness. On the other hand, China should focus on the supply side, accelerate the building of a unified national market, improve the business environment and support domestic enterprises in providing more high-quality products and services that meet the needs of the people.
In the face of the US side’s capriciousness and extreme pressure, China has not closed the door to negotiations, but it will not count on luck either. Instead, it has made all kinds of preparations to deal with the impact. China’s economy is like a vast ocean, not a small pond. This ocean can withstand the test of violent storms and the invasion of trade cold waves, and will eventually show the world its composure and determination of “embracing all rivers”.